Tropical Storm Fay looking to impact area

Tropical Storm Fay projected path as of 5PM, Jul 9, 2020 (courtesy of NHC)

As mentioned briefly in a previous post there appears to be a very good chance that a tropical system will impact the area from late Friday into Saturday.  The storm system is currently in the mid Atlantic area off the coast of North Carolina and will then move north, impacting the northeast.  The National Hurricane Center upgraded the storm to a tropical storm as of the 5PM update today and the storm becomes the 6th named system of the season with the title of Tropical Storm Fay.  The projected track take it north and then northeast with some models moving it east of the area and others to the west...as with all tropical systems the track makes all the difference when it comes to the potential for rare birds to show up.  The upcoming storm appears to mainly be a flooding threat with winds not expected to be a major issue with the storm being a minimal tropical storm at best (although coastal areas could be impacted more with the wind).  As far as the potential for birds being impacted the storm will not be too strong nor over the open water for an extended length of time so the chances of a major displacement of pelagic birds is very limited but the storm could push some near shore birds (such as gulls, terns and herons/egrets) inland as well as force down early migrating shorebirds returning from the arctic.  The best spots to check would include large bodies of water (such as Quabbin reservoir), the Connecticut River (especially previously productive areas during tropical systems such as the Oxbow in Northampton, Holyoke Dam in South Hadley and the Barton Cove area.  Any farm fields that do not have crops filling them could also be productive for any shorebirds that might be forced down.  Overall the storm is not going to produce anything approaching the epic day of Hurricane Irene but it still be worth getting out and seeing what might turn up.

The 2020 hurricane season is already off to a record setting pace with five named storms so far (with Tropical Storm Eduardo having formed on July 6 off the Atlantic coast and brushing past Bermuda before heading out into the open Atlantic).  Eduardo is the earliest fifth named storm on record for the Atlantic (beating the previous record of Hurricane Emily that initially formed on July 11 in 2005).  All the hurricane predictions continue to point toward an above normal season and some have recently revised the total number of storms upward once again.

For a more detailed look at both previous tropical systems that have impacted the western Massachusetts area as well as links to helpful sites concerning forecasting and storm information please check out the following post: Tropical storm related species in Western Massachusetts.

I will update as needed the next couple days.