Quabbin Park this morning and birds from the last week

Bald Eagle, Winsor Dam, Quabbin Park, MA, Oct 23, 2015

Turkey Vulture, Winsor Dam, Quabbin Park, MA, Oct 23, 2015

Winsor Dam at dawn (before the waves really kicked up), Quabbin Park, MA, Oct 23, 2015

Wood Duck, Quabbin Park, MA, Oct 23, 2015

After winds out of the south the last few days a cold front moved through late yesterday and brought in some much colder and windier weather (highs struggling to get into the 50's compared to a high in the 70's yesterday). I had high hopes that the northwesterly winds would bring in more waterfowl but unfortunately there were few to be found over the course of a few hours at Quabbin (although the route 9 marsh was quite productive).  There were some raptors moving as well as robins but not too much waterfowl given what I guessed would be great migration conditions.  I guess you never know until you go out and check.  I was joined for a time by Devin and we both endured some very late fall like conditions with a strong north wind and temperatures in the 40's.  List from the morning at Winsor Dam: http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist?subID=S25514167 and the list from Quabbin Park itself:  http://ebird.org/ebird/view/checklist?subID=S25514977

Cackling Geese (front) with Canada Geese, Arcadia, Northampton, MA, Oct 22, 2015

Cackling Goose, Arcadia, Northampton, MA, Oct 22, 2015

Greater White fronted Goose, Power Canal, Turners Falls, MA, Oct 20, 2015

Red tailed Hawk eating squirrel, Arcadia, Northampton, MA, Oct 20, 2015

Wild Turkeys, Arcadia, Northampton, MA, Oct 20, 2015

Earlier this week I made a few morning stops over to Arcadia mainly looking for waterfowl. On Tuesday I had 25 Canada Geese, 19 Wood Ducks, 4 Black Ducks, 33 Mallards and three Green winged Teal for waterfowl plus a group of 36 Wild Turkeys and a Red tailed Hawk dining on a squirrel.  Thursday at Arcadia produced two Cackling Geese in among the Canada Geese plus a decent number of Wood Ducks and Mallards.  I also managed a brief stop at the power canal in Turners Falls on my way to class on Tuesday and had the continued Greater White fronted Goose among nearly five hundred Canada Geese plus I ran into Joshua as I arrived and then James further down the canal.  The changeable weather of fall continued this week with the early part of the week also featured record setting cold with lows in the teens.


Now for a little weather geek time about Hurricane Patricia that is impacting the pacific coast of Mexico.  I have been watching the storm for the last few days and have been truly amazed by the growth of the system. Until just a couple days ago it was forecast to just reach hurricane strength.  The storm has surprised most everyone with its explosive growth from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in just 24 hours.  It is now the strongest hurricane on record in the western hemisphere with sustained winds at 200 MPH and a pressure of 879 mb.  The storm dropped its pressure 100 mb in just 24 hours...absolutely amazing!  There is no doubt the storm will cause catastrophic damage where it makes landfall.  The storm will rapidly lose strength as it moves through Mexico and eventually into the gulf coast region.  We may feel some of the remnants of the storm mid to late next week in the form of some rain.  Additional details about this historic storm can be found at these links:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3165
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3166

I also ran across a few blog posts about some of the new world birds that have shown up over in Europe lately (almost certainly at least related to the weather conditions associated with Joaquin). Here are the links:
http://azoresbirdsightings.blogspot.co.uk/

http://peteralfreybirdingnotebook.blogspot.com/

Update on Hurricane Joaquin

Hurricane Joaquin forecast track as of 2PM, Sep 30, 2015 (map courtesy of the NHC)

Tropical Depression 11 developed into Tropical Storm Joaquin yesterday and into Hurricane Joaquin today. As mentioned a few days ago when the depression was just forming, the potential exists for the storm to eventually have an impact here (or at least somewhere on the east coast). The current projection shows the storm continuing to develop and intensify and slowly begin to move in a northerly direction, possibly reaching Category 3 strength. The storm is over historically warm waters at this point and the main item that has kept it from intensifying even quicker has been continued wind shear.  The real question is where it goes after turning north. It could curve more northwestward and impact areas to our south or continue north and impact western mass directly or be curved out to sea. The latest guidance puts the track more west than east with an impact somewhere along the east coast. There various forecast models are having a tough time figuring out a high confidence track for the storm as there are many variables that could interact with the storm and change the actual track, especially out beyond a few days. Regardless of the final path we are likely to at least get some heavy rain and wind from the storm.  I will update over the coming days. 

Link to some additional related information regarding the storm and related birds can be found at a Birdcast post here:  http://birdcast.info/forecast/special-alert-upper-midwest-and-northeast-tropical-storm-joaquin/

A link to tropical system related birds in western Massachusetts as well as various of useful links related to tropical weather can be found at this link from an earlier post:
http://quabbinbirdingandbeyond.blogspot.com/2015/02/a-look-at-tropical-storm-related.html

Below is the projected storm location and strength for the next five days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 24.7N  72.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 24.3N  73.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 24.1N  74.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 24.4N  74.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 25.3N  74.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z 28.5N  73.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  04/1200Z 34.0N  73.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  05/1200Z 38.5N  74.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

Last night and today we have dealt with heavy rain associated with a variety of weather features and the rains produced 5"+ of rain leading to some local flooding.  Beyond a few species of waterfowl likely being forced down I have not seen nor heard of anything way out of the ordinary associated with the heavy rain of yesterday and today.