Hurricane Irma update

Hurricane Irma striking Barbuda, Sep 5, 2017

Hurricane Irma projected path as of 8AM, Sep 6, 2017

Hurricane Irma strengthened further yesterday becoming a very dangerous high end Category 5 hurricane with winds that reached 185 MPH sustained with higher gusts (only one other storm in the Atlantic, Hurricane Allen in 1980, had stronger winds at 190 MPH).  The pressure has dropped to 916 mb and the storm looks to maintain this strength or become even stronger. There is really nothing of consequence stopping the storm as the conditions are damn near perfect for it. At this point the northern Lesser Antilles have already been directly impacted with the storm hitting Barbuda last night and Saint Martin getting hit now.  The islands that take a direct hit will undoubtedly experience catastrophic destruction...a storm of this power will level most everything. Irma becomes one of the strongest hurricanes ever in the Atlantic basin and the strongest storm ever outside of the Gulf of Mexico or north of the Caribbean so a record breaking storm already. The projected storm track continues to show the storm being a major threat for a direct hit to the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas and the Greater Antilles before almost certainly having a direct impact to the United States. Florida is almost certainly to be hit but the real question is exactly where on the peninsula.  The latest guidance points away from the storm making it across the peninsula and impacting the Gulf of Mexico side but instead the storm is likely to track up the peninsula or stay just offshore on the east coast...still question marks but make no mistake the storm will impact the US mainland in some form.

What effect will the storm have on bird life? Migrants will likely fly around the storm (if they have the ability) but many will certainly perish in the storm. The birds on the islands will also take a major hit with winds from a Category 5 storm but hopefully they will find some places to hide out and ride out the storm.  There are a number of endemic species that could suffer some heavy loss due to their restricted range on some of the islands being directly impacted (the Barbuda Warbler comes to mind as one example).  Pelagic birds will certainly be entrained within the storm and once landfall occurs the birds that survive will be dumped inland...where that happen will depend on the track of the storm...more on that later.

There is also a newly named storm (TS Jose) behind Irma that also could develop into another hurricane and track up through the northern Lesser Antilles but more about that at a later time.

Another morning at Arcadia produces two Dickcissel and lots of other good stuff plus the latest on Hurricane Irma

Dickcissel, Arcadia, Northampton, MA, Sep 4, 2017

Dickcissel and Bobolink, Arcadia, Northampton, MA, Sep 4, 2017

Bobolinks and Cooper's Hawk, Arcadia, Northampton, MA, Sep 4, 2017

Yellow Warbler, Arcadia, Northampton, MA, Sep 4, 2017

Chimney Swift, Arcadia, Northampton, MA, Sep 4, 2017

Barn Swallow, Tree Swallow and Bank Swallow, Arcadia, Northampton, MA, Sep 4, 2017

Willow Flycatcher, Arcadia, Northampton, MA, Sep 4, 2017

After a dismal day yesterday with cool temps and rain most of the day (compliments of the remnants of Harvey) today was much improved with mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures (eventually). Yesterday I mainly caught up on stuff around the house although I did make a few checks around the local area to see if the rain forced any migrants (such as shorebirds or terns) down but no luck for me. Today I birded with Keenan for a few hours at Arcadia starting off at dawn. Quite a few good birds around including at least two Dickcissel, a Willow Flycatcher, 600+ Bobolinks and good numbers of Indigo Buntings and Song Sparrows among the 63 species tallied. Full list from the morning here: Arcadia

Black Vultures, Hadley, MA, Sep 4, 2017

Black Vultures, Hadley, MA, Sep 4, 2017

On my way home I turned up three Black Vultures along Moody Bridge Road flying around among the more numerous Turkey Vultures. My walk with Wilson along the Jabish Canal turned up a mixed species flock that included my first Bay breasted Warbler of the fall. Tomorrow looks to be a warm and humid day before we get some rain showers from Wednesday into Thursday before a return to sunny but cooler temps on Friday. The next big push of migrants looks to occur then so I be out seeing what I can find then.

Projected path Hurricane Irma as of 5PM, Sep 4, 2017

Hurricane Irma continues to gain strength and became a Category 4 storm today with winds at 130 MPH.   The forecast models have continued to trend  to the south and west compared to earlier predictions. It now looks to impact some of the northern Lesser Antilles directly and get very close to Puerto Rico before heading into the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas. A hit on Hispaniola and/or Cuba can also not be ruled out at this point. The chances of a hit here have diminished a bit but a landfall somewhere in the US seems to be very likely. Different models are pointing to different locations but a landfall somewhere between Florida and the Carolina's seems quite possible. There are still several weather systems out there that will have an impact on the future of the storm and there are still many questions yet to be answered....stay tuned.

September starts off with a bang with a Dickcissel and multiple Cape May and Tennessee Warblers

Dickcissel, Arcadia, Northampton, MA, Sep 2, 2017

Dickcissel, Arcadia, Northampton, MA, Sep 2, 2017

Cape May Warbler, Arcadia, Northampton, MA, Sep 2, 2017

Red tailed Hawk, Arcadia, Northampton, MA, Sep 2, 2017

Prairie Warbler, Arcadia, Northampton, MA, Sep 2, 2017

Bobolink, Arcadia, Northampton, MA, Sep 2, 2017

September has started off great with the first two days of the month producing 102 species already! The weather has been unseasonably cool which has certainly encouraged some migrants to move. This morning the temperature dipped down into the upper 30's, which was a near record low and had me wearing gloves and a winter hat to start the day over at Arcadia.  Tomorrow is forecast to be somewhat rainy and a bit cool but we should get a warm up for the first couple days of the week.  Today I spent several hours from dawn to mid morning at Arcadia and had some great stuff including a Dickcissel, another Cape May Warbler (a male this time and my third Cape May in just the last few days), good numbers of House Wrens, Song Sparrows, Bobolinks and Indigo Buntings. Overall a total of 67 species with the full list here: Arcadia.  I also made brief stops at Lower Mill Pond (which was very quiet with no shorebirds at all) and the Holyoke Dam before heading home to get Wilson to go for a walk around midday.  

Red eyed Vireo, Quabbin Park, MA, Sep 1, 2017

Black throated Green Warbler, Quabbin Park, MA, Sep 1, 2017

Chestnut sided Warbler, Quabbin Park, MA, Sep 1, 2017

Tennessee Warbler, Quabbin Park, MA, Sep 1, 2017

Ovenbird, Quabbin Park, MA, Sep 1, 2017

Yesterday I stayed around the south Quabbin area spending almost all my time in Quabbin Park (with a quick diversion to Lake Wallace around dawn). My morning started at Winsor Dam where I had at least one Eastern Whip Poor Will calling despite the cool temps and decent breeze. Lake Wallace had a Virginia Rail plus the expected species around...my stops there will likely be coming to an end soon as the waterfowl hunting season will begin on September 5 and the lake gets hunted quite heavily. Quabbin Park itself was fairly active in spots but the breezy conditions made it a bit tough to bird in some spots. Highlights were many and included at least six Tennessee Warblers among 16 species of warblers...list from the morning there with more photos here:   Quabbin Park -morning.  I made an afternoon return to Quabbin Park to meet a few people to discuss Cerulean Warblers in the area and to take a couple short walks. Despite the late hour and continued wind we still found some decent birds including a Cape May Warbler in a mixed species flock...full list here: Quabbin Park-afternoon

Black capped Chickadee with leg bands, home, Belchertown, MA, Sep 1, 2017

Around the yard I came across a banded Black capped Chickadee I had not seen since September 1, 2016...a year to the day! I think the bird likely nested nearby but I had not seen it again until yesterday. It was banded back in June 2016, so he has a few years under his belt.

Now for the latest discussion regarding the tropics and the status of Hurricane Irma. The storm has fluctuated between being a Category 2 and 3 storm the last couple days as it moved through some cooler ocean waters. The storm is now headed to warmer waters and in all likelihood will strengthen further as it moves southwest for a time before turning back northwest. It looks to potential impact the northern Lesser Antilles but even that is not a certainty yet. Lots of players in the forecast but it certainly should be watched closely. The model runs out past the five day mark hint at a possible impact on the US but the accuracy that far out is low. One thing for certain is the storm will continue to be a strong hurricane and if it does hit anywhere the impact will be major. Over the next several days if it looks like the storm may indeed head in this direction I will update on here. Here is a link to the various hurricane season sites I like to look at to get a feel of what may come.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

August comes to an end and a tropical update

Indigo Bunting, Arcadia, Northampton, MA, Aug 31, 2017

Song Sparrow, Arcadia, Northampton, MA, Aug 31, 2017

House Wren, Arcadia, Northampton, MA, Aug 31, 2017

Bobolink, Arcadia, Northampton, MA, Aug 31, 2017

Bobolinks, Arcadia, Northampton, MA, Aug 31, 2017

Cape May Warbler, Jabish Canal, Belchertown, MA, Aug 29, 2017

Yellow Warbler, Silvio Conte NWR-Fort River, Hadley, MA, Aug 29, 2017

As August comes to an end the fall migration season will soon be here in full force. The next month will see a big movement of passerines as they head south until next spring. So far for this fall migration season (August 15-November) I have found 23 species of warbler including some early migrants including two Tennessee Warblers on August 17, Connecticut Warbler a Cape May Warbler and two Northern Parula on August 29 and a Wilson's Warbler on August 24.  The new version of eBird mobile lets you see the last five years worth of month to month and year to year data which makes it easy to see where you compare from year to year. This August turned out to be the best August I have ever had for Hampshire County with a total of 135 species (compared to my previous best August total of 132 back in 2014). A few selected lists from the last few days of August with additional photos here:

Silvio Conte NWR-Fort River Aug 29
Arcadia Aug 31

Hurricane Irma forecast track as of Aug 31, 2017 at 11AM (courtesy of the NHC)

The tropics continue to be active with the remnants of Hurricane Harvey continuing to move away from southeast Texas and western Louisiana and is currently classified as a tropical depression.  The severe flooding continues and the overall damage in that area is extreme and will take years to recover.  The remnants will continue to move off to the northeast and we may even end up with some showers related to the storm over the weekend.  A much bigger potential player is recently formed Hurricane Irma way out in the Atlantic moving westward.  The storm intensified rapidly to a Category 2 storm today with 100 MPH winds and is forecast to become a major hurricane very soon.  It looks to be a potential long range threat to a number of locations including the U.S. and lots of spots in the Caribbean.  The storm is still a long way out there but it must be watched carefully.

Gray Fox, home, Belchertown, MA, Aug 25, 2017

Gray Fox, home, Belchertown, MA, Aug 26, 2017

At home I continue to capture some good stuff on the various motion cameras including a continued Gray Fox.